We’re Praying for You.
I’ve always had a knack for being out of town when any type of hurricane evacuation is issued. For Ivan I was in Dallas. Now I live in a completely different country.
I thought it would be appropriate to repost an entry I made on September 26th. At the time it didn’t seem like it would be a realistic possibility so soon. Now, it gives me chills. For those that are staying, my prayers are with you.
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25,000 to 100,000 People Would Be Killed
The University of New Orleans Survey Research Center and the Southeast Louisiana Hurricane Task Force found that a major hurricane, with 130 mph winds and an 18-foot-high storm surge, would not scare 60 percent of southeast Louisiana residents.
“In 2002, an American Red Cross estimate found 25,000 to 100,000 people would be killed if a major hurricane hit the New Orleans area.”
With an above-normal 2005 hurricane season predicted and over four months left, will you become an I-10-clogging evacuation monkey?
This begs the question that if 60% wouldn’t (and didn’t) evacuate in the past and we have this kind of congestion to evacuate in the future from only 40% of residents (remember the contraflow silliness from Ivan, forget the recent contraflow confusion from Dennis?) , can a new plan handle the tide if people change their minds? 100% of us will find out soon enough.
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Related posts:
How many people are gonna be stuck on the highways when the storm hits? What a nightmare.
I’ve been doing a little research about NOLA and its geography. I thought y’all might be interested in this report about Hurricane Betsy in 1965:
http://docs.lib.noaa.gov/rescue/mwr/096/mwr-096-02-0118.pdf
I haven’t been able to find a map, but I’m hoping that all y’all in the Quarter (and you Rico) are sitting your asses somewhere on the Gentilly Ridge–if you’re staying in the city.
If you’re interested in just why it is likely that humans will eventually lose the battle to keep NOLA in existence, I highly recommend John McPhee’s extraordinary natural history of NOLA, the Mississippi, and life along the Gulf.
From a native New Orleanian and a fellow metroblogger now in Atlanta, good luck all. I hope everyone is making it out of the city safe and sound.
Oy. The name of McPhee’s book is The Control of Nature (Farrar Straus Giroux, 1989). The first chapter, “Atchafalaya,” deals with the Mississippi, NOLA, and catastrophic weather events like Katrina.
I worked on the post-Andrew clean-up crew, the last Cat 5 storm to hit the USA, and all I have to say is: Head for the hills, boys, head for the hills.
I am serious about getting out of NOLA. They are talking 25ft storm surge, that’s on top of normal sea level that NOLA is what? 10 ft under.
Add in the 175 MPH winds, which will shear off roofs and peel open walls like a firehose through a paper towel, and you better be well out of Katrina’s path.
My most vivid memory of Andrew: The whole roof of a house, ripped off in one peice and thrown like a giant Frisbee, through the roofs, walls, and lives of a dozen of it’s neighbours.
Godspeed, NO. Anything DC can do to help, let us know.
Best of luck, and stay dry!
TV coverage streamed to the web:
http://www.wwltv.com/perl/common/video/wmPlayer.pl?title=beloint_wwltv&props=livenoad
I’m not normally a religious person. But this is the point where even I start praying.
Godspeed from San Diego.
Keep your heads above water - I’m with the safe and sane folks - if you can get out, do.
I was a little kid when Audrey blasted across Grand Isle and up through Alexandria. I still have vivid memories of the houses on my block that just ‘weren’t there anymore’ after that. From what I read and know about NOLA’s geography, that will be childs play compared to the worst-case scenerios portrayed for this one. It’s probably too late to get out at this point, so plan to make the best of a really bad situation. Fill up the tub with water, put new liners in the gargbage cans and fill them, and buy all the canned goods that you can find. Red Cross will have food to you in a few days, but water is harder to find, in quantity. Then just hold on and pray. Pray even if you don’t believe… it can’t hurt. I’ll be praying for you, too.
Ed Driskill, in Houston (another future ground zero)
Apropos of nothing, I am in love with Ben Lemoine and am going to bear all of his children.
If anyone can tell me anything about the conditions in the Gentilly area - specifically near Elysian Fields/Brother Martin, etc. I would be very appreciative. My family is here in FL with us and we don’t know if they have a home to return to. If you know anything for certain please email me at Prischick@aol.com with Gentilly in the subject line. THANK YOU!