Flooding Predictions Overblown
While Mayor Nagin has said in press conferences that St. Charles Avenue would be under 9 feet of water after all is said and done, this is simply not the case. He might be saying that to scare folks into leaving, which is fine, but for all the people who own property in the uptown area it’s simply not true. St. Charles Ave is at sea level, NOT six feet below as Nagin had said. So with waters 3 feet above sea level, there will be 3 feet of water on St. Charles Ave, which seems to be the case in some places. People closer to the river, especially between Magazine and Tchoupitoulas, will face minimal flooding. The same may be true for the Bywater area between St. Claude and the river. That is high ground, it is a natural levee and several feet above sea level.
I live in Mid City and my elevation is about 1.5 feet below sea level, meaning 4-5 feet of water over there, most likely. Bad, yes. But maybe the possessions that I put up on high closet shelves before leaving will still be dry.
(Image courtesy The Washington Post)
This is an elevation map of the city. Basically, Green=good. Yellow=some water. Red=water. The richest green hues on that map, right along the river, are roughly 14 feet above sea level. The corps of engineers has said water levels will top out at 3 feet above sea level and then receed as the lake water level lowers.
Fox News is saying the entire city will be covered in 15 feet of water. That is simply bullshit. Close to the lake that will be the case, but not anywhere else. If you’re uptown, downtown, bywater, warehouse district.. don’t write off your possessions just yet. It’s still going to suck, bad, but don’t listen to the sensationalist reports of 12 feet of water over the entire city.
Update: Just heard from a stalwart who rode it out in his Bywater house, on Dauphine St. between Clouet & Louisa. There is NO water on Dauphine right now. Just read an article saying the water might actually rise higher than the 3 feet above sea level originally predicted, due to the Pearl River cresting.
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You are doing a great service. Keep it up! I have been watching streaming news from
http://www.wdsu.com/video/4907831/detail.html
since Katrina made landfall, from Denver Colorado. My thoughts and prayers and will everyone affected by Katrina. Take care.
The problem is that there is more than simple sea level to consider. From what I could tell, Lake Ponchatrain appears to be a little more than 20 miles in diameter. Twenty miles of 3-foot deep overflow gives you 5.2 billion cubic feet (or 701 million gallons) of water.
All of which will keep pouring into the basin which, at best, appears to be about 10 miles in diameter. So, the three feet of overflow from Lake Ponchatrain will be considerably deeper in the the smaller basin that makes up New Orleans.
Thank you so much for putting up the depth map and the cross section. This really helps those of us who don’t know which areas of the city are really higher or lower elevation. My thoughts and prayers are with y’all now and in the coming months.
thank god your possessions are safe, that’s whats really important.
WWL just reported that someone at St. Charles and Jefferson called and said water was now an inch and a half from his door, whereas yesterday he had been “high and dry” in his area.
Our house is indeed between Magazine and Tchoup and (at last report) remains very dry. At this point, I’ll be glad to hope for (and clean up) minor flooding. Thanks Chris — it’s a psychological boost and that’s as important as anything right now.
Mid City is not dry. At least 12 feet of water at S Scott and Banks Street - my parents left just two hours ago by boat because it looked like the ater might be rising again after the other levee broke.
Chris, I thank God for you and your girlfriends ability to avoid any danger to your person by being able to leave the city to get to higher ground. I guess the pictures and non ability to reach my friends in New Orleans is just some overblown report that my feeble mind is capturing. You know when you see something and are told it’s not happening…You are in my prayers just as those relatives, friends and reporters of FOX news.
Thanks for the good information - the map (with the elevation info) was particularly helpful to me since I am not familar with the city. Keep up the good work
The Times Picayune today explained that the Lake is 6 feet higher than normal; and the Pearl River cresting is preventing the Lake from draining out to sea. Only place to drain is to NOLA. And water continues to enter the Lake from the drainage from the rain that was dumped in the area. So when things equalize, NOLA may well have water at a level of 6 feet above sea level.
Danny, you are incorrect, water doesn’t work that way. It will rise to a maximum of whatever height the lake is above sea-level, which I read on nola.com is currently six feet above sea-level, but it is going down slowly. So uptown should get a maximum of several feet of water, garden district should get a maximum of a couple feet of water (according to the map above). The low-lying streets, however, like State street, are already flooded, according to a phone call my wife got from a relative there who has decided to leave.
Great reporting! With a couple of friends remaining in New Orleans and my sanity at a precipice, I’ve been blogging a lot about this from my evacuation perch in Houston. Whatever I get from NO gets posted. I’m going to use your post to illustrate the finer points of NO drainage (or lack thereof) to my visitors. Thanks again and STAY SAFE!
We will get through this!
I think it was Nightline that had an expert on last night talking about secondary flood damage. He said that after about 24 hours standing in water, a wooden structure’s walls, roof, and insulation become completely soaked due to the wicking action of wood. That can cause the building to quickly become structurally unsound. I’m no expert, so I can’t confirm or deny it, but if it’s true…!
Look, for anyone who is criticizing me for downplaying the situation, I’m not. I’m just trying to report the facts as they are. The national news coverage of this is flawed in so many ways, the truth needs to be put out there.
The corps of engineers was just on TV saying the lake levels have equalized with the water in the city and that the lake is beginning to receed. Let’s just hope they can get that levee patched up.
My thoughts are with you guys.
Hi Everyone,
Can anyone speak to the Bienville/Murat/N. Alexander area? How much flooding/water? I have heard reports ranging from 1-8 feet of water. That’s a big difference.
I am staying with relatives in Bourg and we only get channel 4. Haven’t seen any national news or even city papers.
I will be so very appreciative of any info you can share. Thanks so much, and good luck to all,
Jan
Just wondering if it has been determined what the current lake and river levels are??? anyone know where to get this info??
Also, wondering the rate of the lake draining through Lake Bourne into Gulf!!
Hopefully the lake level will get back to it’s normal 1′ level by plenty of drainage to East into Bourne.
Glad to get some real info. Thanks
Whether or not the flooding is as high as scaremongers might predict is sort of a moot point right now if you’re worried about possessions.
If you didn’t stick around to ride out the storm, then it seems like it will be weeks before you can get back into the city anyway. With the reports of looting, you may not have a whole lot left to come back to anyway, even if it was stored on higher floors or closet shelves.
Have Metairie friends staying with me in Shreveport. Wondering if anyone knows about Elmwood Street between the lake and W Esplanade. Does anyone have any firsthand knowledge of water levels there??
I would appreciate any information about the Venetian Isles subdivision in Eastern New Orleans. Many Thanks.
Chris considering the fact that there are dead bodies floating in some areas and that there is water around the superdome, who gives a damn if 1/4 or 3 quarters of the city has flooded? Water does not work in the way you described. Lake Ponchatrain is already higher than normal. New Orleans is bowl shaped and water was knocked into the bowl from the hurricane. Then, the levees broke and water came in from the lake. The lake is going to drain toward the lowest point
I wanted to know if anyone knows about water around poydras and baronne my sister works at drury inn thanks
Any news of water levels at 1221 Richmond Drive area, Metairie? or 2509 Giuffrias too? Haven’t heard from my cousins. We are hoping for the best.
Does anyone have any News about the BellSouth employees that worked at the NO east Bundy building off of I10! Did everyone make it out Safe!What are the conditions there?
I really believe that Mayor Nagin would like to see all his people out of the area and safe at a time like this, rather than milling around the damaged cities. I think you are wrong in making people think it is a better situation than it really is without thinking about the safety of everyone. Evacuation is the best idea, until the water recedes and clean-up and rebuilding can be started.
The area needs time to start drying and healing before anyone returns.
hi at all.
me and my children are from germany and we`re very shocked about what had happen.we are so far away and we don`t know how to help!!!
we spend money but we don`t know if it comes to the people who need it.
nevertheless we send all of our prayers and thoughts to all the afflicted people,
who need every strenght and power now
to carry on.
miriam
It seems that despite what has been said to the contrary, this appears to be a disaster of immense proportions. There is a great danger from water contamination, insect infestation, and heat. The old and the young will suffer first and worst. Hundreds may already be dead, and thats just in New Orleans.
The news services may not have it right but
remember that the opening opinion is from somebody who isn’t there either.
f you aren’t able to go and lend a hand directly (as most of us are not qualified to do..), the best way is by giving money and support to the Red Cross and other aid organizations.
The Federal Emergency Management Agency maintains a list of “legitimate” groups on their website: http://www.fema.gov/press/2005/resources_katrina.shtm
Look at the Flooding horrible. Now lets demand the Federal Gov. in Washington Spend your/our
tax monies in the USA. Rebuild those leeve system with the BEST MATERIAL”S we have and build them so the leeves can handle any HURRICANE/ Also rebuild the entire City with Houses that can withstand a flood. American’s deserve the Best Material’s Construction their is in the World. Insead of Blowing away Billions of Dollars on far out military adventures like Iraq,Iran,or Korea. It’s time the Big Shots in Washington take care of our own American People.
GOOD news your stuff is dry. BAD news it is being looted as i type
UPDATE ON LOWER MARIGNY — My landlord talked to people riding it out at Chartres and Port at noon Wednesday: still dry, minimal wind damage. That’s a 4-story brick building across the street from the Sound Cafe near NOCCA.
CHRIS, your blog is a good integrator of news reports, first-hand accounts, and research. Don’t let a few crabby people distract you from how important this site has been to refugees!
OTHERS, if you’re looking for specific people or block-by-block damage reports, the neighborhood blogs at NOLA are a better resource.
STEVE O’KEEFE
I must say the cross sectional map has been a great help. Finding a useable topo map of the area was a very challeging job then the server went overloaded.
It would be great if dang government would put up a map showing the water based on elevation. So simple for the almighty .gov if they would just do it.
As for looting I am wondering when the “smart” thieves will be hauling off the truely valuable stuff that is out in the homes. The jewelry, antiques, collectibles, guns, and they may as well steal the food and water too so the liberials will be able to say “its ok for those poor people to steal stuff”.
Yeah, Edge, right on. In any area with no food or potable water available except at abandoned stores with no one to sell things to you, it’s important to remember that you’re better off letting your kids die of thirst than getting them potable water through illegal means.
FOO don’t misunderstand, there is compassion. AND There IS plenty of water & food at the shelters. It is just that some people feel they need, or are entitled, to have steaks & champagne for a handout rather than plain wrapped chicken dogs.
Hey, Chris. It’s your kid sister. I showed mom and dad the blog and they’re quite glad to hear from you. Keep up the good work, they say, and much love and luck and all that good stuff from us.
And here is a handy website that has good elevation maps and the like of New Orleans. Hope someone finds it useful:
http://gnocdc.org/
NEWS ALERT!!! I am willing to relocate a family of 4 To Tucson, AZ. With free rent (1 mo.) And a job!!! Driving a commercial truck (no CDL) daily, earning 350-500 a week. Fresh start on life! with an oppty. to grow and be secure. Must qualify via e-mail & personal interview. Call 520-275-3000 ask for Buddy.
NEW ORLEANS RESIDENTS AFTER REGAINING GROUND NEED 2 PLACE BLAME WHERE BLAME IS DUE…BUSH, BUSH, BUSH..WHERE ARE OUR NATIONAL GAURD? WHERE IS OUR CATASTROPHY FUNDS/EQUIPMENT? WHY DID BUSH DISREGARD THE LEVY PROJECT KNOWING FULL WELL THE DANGER. FEMA PREDICTED THIS TO THE TEE,, HOLD ON AMERICA THIS IS GOING TO BE THE BEGINNING OF THE END IF WE DONT GET RID OF THE PROBLEM….NOW! FOR NOW N.O. NEEDS EVERY SMALL BOAT AVAILABLE IN THE AREA ON THE MOVE TO RESCUE THESE HELPLESS VICTIMS…NOW!
ALSO, WHERE’S THE LOVE AMERICA? WE HAVE CRUISE SHIPS CAPABLE OF HOUSING 1000′S UPON 1000′S OF REFUGEES. GET THE SHIPS TO P’COLA OR MOBILE BAY. HOUSTON IS TOO FAR TO RESCUE THE UNDERESTIMATED NUMBERS STRANDED. IF WE CANNOT RESCUE WE ARE FAILURES. THE HELL WITH APPROVAL + RED TAPE CRAP..USE WHAT WE CAN AT ALL COSTS.
ACCORDING TO FEMA IT WAS PREDICTED THAT NEW ORLEANS IF HIT BY A HURRICANE UNDER THE CIRCUMSTANCES OF THE POORLY FUNDED LEVY WOULD RESULT IN ONE OF THE LARGEST CATASTROPHIES IN THE NATION…SO FAR, IT HAS BEEN! GO BUSH! BETTER START GETTING SOME OIL TO THE GULF COAST BEFORE YOU START AN ECONOMICAL, DOMINO EFFECT THAT CANNOT BE STOPPED. NOW WE ARE EXTREMELY VULNERABLE YOU FACIOUS,GREEDY, UNINTELLIGANT OGAR.
Does anybody no about the water levels in the coliseum square area?
Re the following comment:
“ALSO, WHERE’S THE LOVE AMERICA? WE HAVE CRUISE SHIPS CAPABLE OF HOUSING 1000′S UPON 1000′S OF REFUGEES. GET THE SHIPS TO P’COLA OR MOBILE BAY. HOUSTON IS TOO FAR TO RESCUE THE UNDERESTIMATED NUMBERS STRANDED. IF WE CANNOT RESCUE WE ARE FAILURES. THE HELL WITH APPROVAL + RED TAPE CRAP..USE WHAT WE CAN AT ALL COSTS.”
First, the cruise ships are not owned by US companies, but mostly by European ones, and they are not registered in the US at all. Second, they might hold 1200 to 1500 in a pinch, but would only have food for 2 weeks, and would need continuous refueling to keep the onboard generators running. If your were albe to requisition the Voyager-class ships from RCCL, you could house maybe 3600, with same limitations on food and fuel. The cruise ship companies would expect to be paid for the use of the ships, assuming that they accepted being chartered to begin with. Lastly, what do you do when the next hurricane comes in? If you requisitioned every cruise ship operating out of a US port, you might house 20,000 people. You have somewhere on the order of 1,000,000 needing shelter, and for months and quite likely years, not days or weeks. Get real down there, finding shelter for a million plus people is going to take a few weeks, and a lot of them are going to be a long way away from New Orleans.
Also, New Orleans is flooded. Biloxi and Gulfport and a fair number of smaller towns in Mississippi have been leveled. They also need assistance, as least as badly as New Orleans. You people is New Orleans seem to think that you are the only ones hurting. You are not. Relief efforts are covering several hundred square miles.
Thanks for the elevation link.
All good points but this thread is about New Orleans not the other areas.
The Governor, not the President, is the only person with authority over the State of LA National Guard for in-State use. She can order all the Guard to act as police if she wishes. She can order a “you loot, we shoot” policy. But that would pretty bad for her reelection after a couple dozen of the scumbags get killed.
What is it, about $4mil a year spent to “study” the levy problems….sound like politics as usual in LA. Vote all the bastards all and get some honest politicians. etc etc.
Reports that uptown is fine are not completely accurate. Yes, parts of uptown escaped, but I can tell you that our house in uptown is completely submerged. Our house is between Jefferson and Napoleon a few blocks north of Claiborne. Last I heard our neighbors were trapped in their house with maybe a foot of space that they could breathe in.
The sad thing is our block escaped hurricane Katrina completely intact with no wind or flood damage. It was the levy that did us in.
This situation is ridiculous. I feel so sorry for the small percentage of good, intelligent people in New Orleans. I cannot fathom what it’s like being surrounded by such a selfish/idiotic population in a dire situation. Shooting at rescue choppers and boats? Exploiting a disaster to loot businesses? It’s a city of illiterate and welfare leeching pieces of sh*t that are once again blaming the government for all their problems. They expect immediate assistance and filet mignon for dinner. Anything less and they’re being treated like animals. I wouldn’t be so insensitive if I didn’t see constant film of these people bashing the government and the president. They are delusional and are blaming a natural disaster on the “oppressive” system. They never admit that maybe, just MAYBE they’re unwillingness to comply with a mass evacuation carries part of the blame. Sheer chaos has ensued, which always will with a populace so primitive and dumb. God bless the children unfortunate enough to be in such a society.
I’m trying to find out any information on Kenner. How bad is it? I have only seen a couple bits of information on it…and Metairie. I know they are probably not flooded like N.O. but what is the damage? Is there anyplace I can find pictures of Kenner and Metairie that anyone knows of? Thanks.
Hi, I
Hi, I
Is there any info on the 52 hundred block of Danneel street?
WHY? IF THE TOWN WAS BELOW SEA LEVEL. AND THIS IS NOT NEW INFO, WHERE ARE ALL THE RESCUE BOATS?
FOR SOME STRAING REASON NO ONE EVER THOUGHT THIS COULD HAPPEN?
bennett2winit I’m sure you’re the type to blame everything on Bush. Lay blame where blame is due is right, but the blame should be afixed firmly with #1 the bleeding heart Liberals who have conditioned a portion of our society to believe they are owed something. NOLA is a very poor and slummish city that has been allowed to stay that way by our welfare system which gives people no incentive to do better for themselves.
#2 the people that stayed behind that had a way out. I saw on the news men that were interviewed that said they stayed behibd because their plan was to become part of the looters, but they got caught up in the flooding. 7000 people have been rescued so far. Why were their 7000+ people left in NOLA? I believe some people just couldn’t get out, and some couldn’t afford to get out, but shame on the rest that stayed to “see the big one” and “to loot the city”.
Don’t get me wrong, I love NOLA and the people that live there. I just wish people would listen when warned, and accept responsablity for their own actions.
I’m looking to find my friends, Thomas, Todd and Eduard Ecker. If anyone reading this knows about their whereabouts, please call me at 617-480-4296
Excerpt from an e-mail I received from rescue workers:
I just returned from an operation in New Orleans and thought I would pass this information on to you to give to your friends. I worked the area between Causeway and Canal/Carrollton, and area between Veterans Blvd. and Airline. I do not remember seeing the church, but I can tell you that everything in that area is covered with 5
Here are a couple more sites that explain the flood water levels and drainage.
http://www.publichealth.hurricane.lsu.edu/convert%20to%20tables/New%20Orleans%20Study%20Areatf.htm
http://www.cccarto.com/new_orleans/flood.html
If there are none, drop gates should be installed at all outlets from the lake into the levees. If the levees failed the drop gates could be closed and result in considerably less water entering the city.
If you look at Holland, they are below sea level and have spent over 3 trillion dollars in massive water gates and huge metal walls to protect their country from tragic flooding (we could learn from them). New Orleans is much smaller, I bet it could be replicated (smaller scale) for less than 10 billion…
Hello
Is Dauphine St dry in the Metassas (not sure about spelling) Grocery Store area?
Chris: Thanks for your efforts. Very good info. I hate to admit it, but some of us landlocked folks still don’t have a good understanding of the canal system, and how it functions. Can you enlighten us a little? Are the canals built up above lake level, and what is their status during normal times? I have not been able to find a thorough description of the system. Thanks, Tom
P.S. It would be nice to see those writers making a political issue of the whole disaster give it a rest. It’s time to move on.