To the west of TD 5 we see a large area of very high shear of up to 50 knots, south of Jamaica. This area of high shear is associated with a strong upper level trough of low pressure that has been a common feature over the Caribbean this season. The trough is moving westward, away from TD 5, but TD 5 is racing fast enough westward that it may catch up to this high shear area and get torn apart on Sunday. The 8pm UKMET and 2am GFS models both have TD 5 dissipating by Sunday, and this is reasonable forecast.
Jack Ware (unregistered) August 25th, 2006
12:29 pm
Yeah, and last year I remember going “shoosh, glad it hit Florida instead of us” and then 4 days later…
I still say BRING IT !!!
Jack Ware (unregistered) August 25th, 2006
12:34 pm
I know it’s a NOAA map, but where did you specifically go to find that map within their system? Just curious because I would like to stay informed about it.
According to NPR’s Science Friday show yesterday they said the surface temps of the Atlanctic were abnormally high just like they were last year, and they said that is what causes the storm to become very strong. Also they said the warm layer runs very deep as well, just like last year.
Surface temp will be the determing factor. I don’t see the jet stream helping right now - maybe by the middle of the week this could change.
Love all my friends in NO - will be praying for cooler water and a drop in the jet stream.
BRING IT !!!!
No worries, yet!
From Dr. Jeff Masters’ Wunderblog today:
To the west of TD 5 we see a large area of very high shear of up to 50 knots, south of Jamaica. This area of high shear is associated with a strong upper level trough of low pressure that has been a common feature over the Caribbean this season. The trough is moving westward, away from TD 5, but TD 5 is racing fast enough westward that it may catch up to this high shear area and get torn apart on Sunday. The 8pm UKMET and 2am GFS models both have TD 5 dissipating by Sunday, and this is reasonable forecast.
Yeah, and last year I remember going “shoosh, glad it hit Florida instead of us” and then 4 days later…
I still say BRING IT !!!
Hey, has anyone else seen this?
http://media.americancomedynetwork.com/FILES/MexTourism.swf
It’s funny and insulting - which is my favorite kind of funny.
I wonder if the crapy Messican car had Corrrrrrinthian Leather
Am I the only one with a creeping sense of impending doom. I don’t feel so well.
I dunno… we’ve already booked our hotel room in Jackson, Mississippi, in case this thing gets out of hand.
no Jack your not the only one- All the peeps at the station are on “serious high alert”
In BR people where I work are already freakin’ out. With the amount of money i’ve spent this year we better be ready.
I won’t think about this just now.
Me= Ostrich w/ head in sand
I know it’s a NOAA map, but where did you specifically go to find that map within their system? Just curious because I would like to stay informed about it.
Drury
I refuse to freak out until someone tells me I have to evacuate, but please Jebus no! Cut us some slack already!
Drury,
Go here:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
The warnings and three/five day cones are here:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at5+shtml/144727.shtml?3day
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at5+shtml/144727.shtml?5day
Don’t look at the five day cone. It just freaked me out.
-jill
How close is the temperature of the Gulf now to what it was when Katrina came in?
According to NPR’s Science Friday show yesterday they said the surface temps of the Atlanctic were abnormally high just like they were last year, and they said that is what causes the storm to become very strong. Also they said the warm layer runs very deep as well, just like last year.
Here is the latest storm map:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at5+shtml/175237.shtml?5day
As I said in another post, good luck and may G-d be with you.
We’ll be praying for you over at blogging.la
Surface temp will be the determing factor. I don’t see the jet stream helping right now - maybe by the middle of the week this could change.
Love all my friends in NO - will be praying for cooler water and a drop in the jet stream.
God Bless
Steve
Looks like the storm will be making landfall east of NOLA.. at least the eye will, according to the latest NOAA map:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at5+shtml/204939.shtml?5day
Prayers answered for NO… needed for FL!!!!
Put NOAA in the engine, you’ll find it.
Laurie