If you’re on the NOLA text/email warning message system, you have gotten a couple of these warnings in the last two days.

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AT NEW ORLEANS. * FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE…OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED. * AT 7:00 PM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 16.9 FEET. * MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST. * THE FLOOD STAGE IS 17.0 FEET. * FORECAST…THE RIVER IS VERY NEAR FLOOD STAGE AND IS EXPECTED TO FLUCTUATE NEAR FLOOD STAGE THROUGHOUT THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. * IMPACT…AT 17.0 FEET…THE RIVER WILL RISE ON THE LEVEE MAKING NAVIGATION AND DOCKING DIFFICULT. THE CITY IS PROTECTED TO A PROJECT HEIGHT OF 20 FEET. * THE BONNET CARRE SPILLWAY WILL LIKELY BE OPENED TOMORROW TO LIMIT THE FLOW PAST NEW ORLEANS AND PREVENT FURTHER RISES AT THE CARROLLTON GAUGE.

I asked a friend of mine who is a meteorologist in the area what this means as far as preparedness. I know an overtopping or compromise in river levees would be a worst case scenario. But I asked him, ‘what are we supposed to do?’

He said he anticipated some confusion about these warnings and his response explained the risks a bit more for me.

“There is always a remote chance of two very bad things happening. One, seepage under a levee from boils (a normal occurrence) compromises the levee and the levee fails allowing water to “fill up the bowl”, including portions that did not flood during Katrina. This is probably not likely because there are levee patrols and inspections going on continuously now. The second, slightly more possible scenario - a runaway large ship, like the one that tried to get you at the Riverwalk mall, or a runaway barge, slams into the levee and slices a gap that would pour water into the city and f”ill the bowl”. There are precautions to prevent that from happening as well - a rescue tow boat in the area can be called to keep the runaway vessel from slamming into the levee. If the disaster did strike, there would be insufficient warning time to evacuate in these scenarios, but if it happened, I’d grab the kitties and head to the Lakefront levee.

The opening of the Bonnet Carre’ spillway today should alleviate the pressure on the levees and get us out of the warning mode but as most of us locals realize that a comprehensive program to divert river water to re-build the wetlands in some unpopulated areas is the real solution.

Related posts:

1. The Bonnet Carré Spillway’s moment to shine
2. Flooding Predictions Overblown
3. Levee Breech
4. Weather forecast– in your face, north!
5. The Great Third Floor Flood of 2006